Ten industry predictions for 2016. It's 2024, how well did I do?

A 2016 article I wrote and pulled from the archives. Eight years later, I grade my work.

In the dynamic HetNet industry, particularly in-building wireless, every year brings something new, but after two years of overhyped technology solutions, 2016 will likely be an especially big year for change. We surveyed industry insiders to tell us what the typical enterprise customer can expect in 2016 that will differ from 2015, and we’ve aggregated their responses below, shedding a little light on the predictions:

1.    Greater focus on the enterprise customer

Continued reduction in carrier funding for distributed antenna systems (DAS) means that DAS integrators will shift their sales focus from the carriers and third-party owner/operators (3POs) to the enterprise. Also, carriers will once again come knocking on the enterprise’s door, offering single-carrier small-cell solutions in return for subscriber commitments (can you say déjà vu?). (I believe that the carriers backed-off the “free” single-carrier systems in favor of asking enterprise customers to fund their coverage solutions.) Prediction Grade: A+

2.    Greater confusion for the enterprise

DAS vs small cell, single-carrier vs neutral-host, coax vs twisted-pair and fiber, analog vs digital. Everyone has an opinion (cough, cough…bias) and you’re bound to hear them all. (I was spot on regarding bias driving recommendation, and therefore, confusion.) Prediction Grade: A

3.    Delays in carrier funding

No doubt AT&T, Verizon, and the 3POs would love to own a neutral-host DAS in every metro high-rise and fancy hotel. Unfortunately, the carriers’ budgets will only fund a select few each year. Folks in Houston, you may be in luck—the Super Bowl always draws carrier funding. (Budget continues to follow the big events.) Prediction Grade: B

4.    Small cell trials

Sure, 2014 and 2015 were both “the year of small cell;” 2016 still may not be “the year of small cell,” but it will certainly be “the year of small-cell trials.” Give your account manager a call if you’re the bleeding-edge type. (Small cells, specifically outdoor small cells, took a bit longer to get deployed in large numbers. However, they are are all the rage these days.) Prediction Grade: C for not getting the timing right.

5.    New funding models

That’s an easy call. The old models aren’t working so well, so the 3POs will get creative. Don’t be surprised if the enterprise needs to contribute—like providing the cable infrastructure. (It was and still is, an easy call. A hospital client of mine received a free RF source from AT&T recently; however, this was an exception. Plan to pay.) Prediction Grade: A

6.    Public safety DAS will be code-compliant

For too long these systems merely pumped RF into the building. IFC and NFPA want to make sure they actually work during a fire—go figure.

7.    Fiber-optic cable

Okay, fiber is not new to DAS, but 2016 will be the year it moves into the ceiling and connects to the antenna. Corning and others would like you to say “PON,” as in passive optical networks. (You can’t beat fiber, but CAT6a twisted-pair cable appears to be the predominant choice for digital DAS and in-building Small Cell deployments.) Prediction Grade: B-

8.    Single-carrier systems

Refer back to prediction #1. The carriers are in no rush to support neutral-host small cells, so pick your favorite carrier or plan to overlay systems.

9.    Digital DAS

If you manage a high-rise in Chicago, you can only imagine the cost of installing half-inch coax in conduit. Digital DAS solutions (CommScope ION-E™ and Corning One™, for example) want to leverage your existing cable infrastructure or at least lower the cost of installation.

10. The “middleprise”

Not big enough to attract the attention of the 3POs but big enough for the solution to be very expensive—and desperately needed—the middleprise (100-500K sq ft) may take matters into its own hands, buying the DAS and directly seeking carrier contributions to offset a portion of the expense. (The middleprise may have sought funding for a part of the DAS, but in most cases, they didn’t get any.) Prediction Grade: B